IS INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM WHAT WE THOUGHT IT WAS? AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE GLOBAL NEOSALAFIST JIHAD IN 2004 (WP)

Current international terrorism is often characterised as a particularly new phenomenon. This is mainly because of the highly lethal and indiscriminate nature of its bombings, the routine involvement of suicide terrorists indoctrinated by Islamic fundamentalism and its tendency to focus on Western targets, especially US citizens and interests. It is true that a certain combination of the features considered typical of international terrorism, and even proclaimed by its instigators and militants, is usual in the most notorious attacks to have taken place in recent years. However, the fact is that this global and religiously-inspired violence, more specifically neosalafist in its ideological orientation, has resulted in a lower-than-expected mortality rate, far more conventional procedures than commonly believed and victimisation patterns that are also different from those hitherto taken for granted. An empirical study of its main actors, scenarios, consequences and targets during the year 2004 indicates that international terrorism is to a greater extent a paradigm of conflicts inside the Islamic world than an expression of a clash between civilisations.

Table 1. Acts of international terrorism in 2004, according to groups and organisations

Groups and organizations	Frequency	Percentage
Taliban	73	35.1
Tawhid wal Jihad	30	14.4
Islamic Army in Iraq	12	5.8
Ansar al Sunna	11	5.3
Al Qaeda	10	4.8
Lashkar e Tayiba	10	4.8
Tanzim Qa’idat al Jihad fi Bilad al Rafidayn	10	4.8
Riyadus Salikhin Battalion of Chechen Martyrs	9	4.3
Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat	6	2.9
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Penninsula	5	2.4
Abu Sayyaf	4	1.9
Jaish e Mohammed	4	1.9
Harakat ul Mudjaheedin	3	1.4
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan	3	1.4
Lashkar e Jangvi	3	1.4
Abu Hafs al Masri Brigades	2	1.0
Yemaa Islamiya	2	1.0
Al Haramain Brigades	1	0.5
Other groups and organizations	10	4.9
Total	208	(100)

Table 2. Acts of international terrorism in 2004, according to countries and geopolitical regions

Countries	Frequency	Percentage
Afghanistan	75	36.1
Iraq	64	30.7
India	15	7.2
Saudi Arabia	13	6.3
Pakistan	10	4.8
Russia	9	4.3
Algeria	6	2.9
The Philippines	5	2.4
Spain	3	1.4
Uzbekistan	3	1.4
Turkey	2	1.0
Egypt	1	0.5
Indonesia	1	0.5
Syria	1	0.5
Total	208	(100)
Geopolitical regions
Central and Southern Asia	103	49.5
Middle East and Gulf	81	38.9
Eastern Europe	9	4.3
Maghreb	6	2.9
South-East Asia	6	2.9
Western Europe	3	1.5
Total	208	(100)

Current international terrorism is often presented as a particularly novel phenomenon: first of all, due to its high degree of deadliness and the indiscrimination with which attacks are conducted. Secondly, because of the routine involvement of suicide bombers in terrorist attacks. Finally, because of its focus on Western targets, especially US citizens and interests. Actually, the rhetoric of the leaders and followers of this international terrorism based on the global jihadist movement underlines the deadly potential of their threats, appeals for activists to carry out what they consider to be martyrdom operations and insists on an anti-Western discourse that is particularly hostile towards Jews and Christians. However, although a certain combination of these features considered to be typical of international terrorism, and also proclaimed by its instigators, is usual in the most spectacular attacks that have taken place over the last few years, such globalised violence has been evolving, as revealed by the data collected for 2004, with lower mortality rates and far more conventional procedures than expected, also with victimisation patterns that are different from those often taken for granted.

Table 3. Acts of international terrorism in 2004, according to dead and injured

Dead	Frequency	Percentage
None	56	28.6
Between 1 and 10	107	54.6
Between 11 and 40	19	9.7
Between 41 and 99	9	4.6
Between 100 and 199	4	2.0
200 and over	1	0.5
Total Missing data: 12	196	(100)
Injured
None	76	42.9
Between 1 and 10	64	36.2
Between 11 and 40	20	11.3
Between 41 and 99	5	2.8
Between 100 and 199	7	4.0
200 and over	5	2.8
Total Missing data: 31	177	(100)

Table 4. Acts of international terrorism in 2004, according to procedures and modalities

Procedure	Frequency	Percentage
Bombs and explosive devices	92	45.5
Terrorist attacks with firearms	48	23.8
Kidnapping and hostage taking	41	20.3
Other procedures	21	10.4
Total Missing data: 6	202	(100)
Modality
Without suicide terrorists	158	83.6
With suicide terrorists	31	16.4
Total Missing data: 19	189	(100)

Table 5. Acts of international terrorism in 2004, according to target type and adscription

Type	Frequency	Percentage
Law enforcement and military	43	21.6
Government institutions and personnel	38	19.1
Economic and tourist interests	31	15.6
Private citizens and property	24	12.1
Public transports and services	16	8.0
Diplomatic targets	11	5.5
Religious bodies and figures	6	3.0
Other types of targets	30	15.1
Total Missing data: 9	199	(100)
Adscription
Non-Western	107	60.8
Western (American)	18	10.2
Western (other nationalities)	26	14.8
Western (mixed)	4	2.3
Western and non-Western	15	8.5
Others (United Nations)	6	3.4
Total Missing data: 32	176	(100)

Both the high frequency and the variable intensity of the attacks perpetrated during 2004 are a good example of the violent potential retained by the groups and organisations which form part of the current network of international terrorism. It is plausible to assert that al-Qaeda, the foundational nucleus and acting vanguard for the multinational and multiethnic entities involved in such globalised violence, might have been progressively weakened over the last three years, after losing its sanctuary and suffering from the consequences of a world-wide persecution. But it can also be argued that this terrorist structure appears to have adapted more easily than expected to an adverse environment. Moreover, the global neosalafist jihad it promoted has become widely extended. Acts of international terrorism are mainly perpetrated by groups and organisations having a local or regional focus but affiliated with al-Qaeda. As the data for 2004 reflect, the danger is now one of a diffuse and diversified violence executed by al-Qaeda itself, its numerous associated entities and even small self-established cells which operate in line with the former’s goals and methods.

Within Western societies, this diffuse jihadist violence manifested itself last year through deadly attacks against soft targets and there is no reason to believe the trend will change, combined perhaps with individual assassinations, as in the case of a well-known Dutch film-maker in November 2004. International terrorist activities in 2004 were congruent with the strategy designed years ago by the leaders of al-Qaeda and which consists in deploying its violence both in the Islamic world, allegedly against rulers considered by neosalafists to be apostates and tyrants, and beyond. However, despite the anti-Western rhetoric so characteristic of groups and organisations related to the global jihadist movement, the data offered in this study make it clear that international terrorism poses risks and threats to societies pertaining to different civilisations.

This article appeared in Real Instituto Elcano. I have only reproduced some of its content. The rest is here.